Methodology

The race

The World Cup 2026 group stage is 12 groups of four. The top two in each group qualify for the Round of 32 automatically. The remaining eight knockout places go to the best eight of the twelve third-placed teams, ranked across all groups by: points, goal difference, goals scored, fair-play points, then drawing of lots. The cutline is the boundary between the 8th and 9th third-placed team.

Ordering

Within each group, teams are ordered by points, goal difference and goals scored; teams still level are separated by head-to-head results among themselves, then fair play, then drawing of lots. Where teams can only be separated by a draw of lots, the site shows them tied and flags it (tie) rather than inventing an order.

The projection

To show where the cut is likely to fall, we simulate the rest of the group stage many times over (20,000 runs). Each run plays out every unfinished fixture in every group, recomputes all standings with the real tiebreakers, takes the team that actually finished third in each group, ranks those twelve, and records where the line landed. The third-placed table is rebuilt from simulated results each time — never assumed.

Each fixture's odds are turned into home/draw/away probabilities, fitted to a pair of scoring rates so realistic scorelines emerge for the goal-difference tiebreakers.

Data & fallback

Results come from a football data feed; match odds from a bookmaker odds feed. When no live line exists for a fixture yet — common before later matchdays open — that match falls back to a strength model based on team ratings, rather than flat guesses. Every fixture that fell back is recorded, and the counts above make the coverage explicit.

Limits

• Projections are probabilities, not predictions.
• The scoreline model is a deliberate simplification; goal-difference tails are approximate.
• Drawing of lots cannot be modelled — tied teams are shown tied.
• This site is unofficial and not affiliated with FIFA.