Twelve groups. The top two of each go through — plus the
best 8 of the 12 third-placed teams. This is that
race for the last knockout spots, and the line that decides it.
Most likely the cut lands on 3 points:
third-placed teams finishing above it qualify for the knockouts; third-placed
teams below it go out. Third-placed teams level on 3 are separated by goal
difference, then goals scored, then fair-play points, then the drawing of lots.
Chance the qualifying line falls on each points total, across
20,000 simulations.
All 48 teams, ranked by their chance of reaching the knockouts by any route — clinched at the
top, eliminated at the bottom, the real race around the even-odds line in the middle.
Now = current group position; Qualify = chance of qualifying.
How the line works
Each of the 12 groups sends its top two teams straight to the Round of 32.
That is 24 places. The last 8 go to the best third-placed teams,
ranked across all groups by points, then goal difference, goals scored, and
fair play.
The four third-placed teams who miss out are eliminated. With groups still
in play, the level of the line moves — so alongside the live table we
simulate every remaining fixture to show the chance it settles on
each points total.