World Cup 2026 · third-place race
The cutline
Twelve groups. The top two of each go through — plus the
best 8 of the 12 third-placed teams. This is that
race for the last knockout spots, and the line that decides it.
Projected cutline
3
pts most likely, typically +2 GD to clear
6 pts 0%
5 pts 0%
4 pts 0%
3 pts 100% +2 GD
2 pts 0%
1 pt 0%
Most likely the cut lands on 3 points:
third-placed teams finishing above it qualify for the knockouts; third-placed
teams below it go out. Third-placed teams level on 3 are separated by goal
difference, then goals scored, then fair-play points, then their FIFA World Ranking, then the drawing of lots.
The GD beside each total is the goal difference the last qualifying team typically
needed to clear the line there — so on 3 points a team
wants about +2 GD or better.
Race for the line
All 48 teams · most likely first
Team GD GF Pts Proj Qualify Next
🇲🇽 Mexico 1st in Grp A 1st A 🔒 +6 6 9 9.0 100% — 🇫🇷 France 1st in Grp I 1st I 🔒 +8 10 9 9.0 100% — 🇦🇷 Argentina 1st in Grp J 1st J 🔒 +7 8 9 9.0 100% — 🇧🇷 Brazil 1st in Grp C 1st C 🔒 +6 7 7 7.0 100% — 🇲🇦 Morocco 2nd in Grp C 2nd C 🔒 +3 6 7 7.0 100% — 🇪🇸 Spain 1st in Grp H 1st H 🔒 +5 5 7 7.0 100% — 🇨🇴 Colombia 1st in Grp K 1st K 🔒 +3 4 7 7.0 100% — 🏴 England 1st in Grp L 1st L 🔒 +4 6 7 7.0 100% — 🇩🇪 Germany 1st in Grp E 1st E 🔒 +6 10 6 6.0 100% — 🇳🇴 Norway 2nd in Grp I 2nd I 🔒 +1 8 6 6.0 100% — 🇭🇷 Croatia 2nd in Grp L 2nd L 🔒 0 5 6 6.0 100% — 🇯🇵 Japan 2nd in Grp F 2nd F 🔒 +4 7 5 5.0 100% — 🇧🇪 Belgium 1st in Grp G 1st G 🔒 +4 6 5 5.0 100% — 🇪🇬 Egypt 2nd in Grp G 2nd G 🔒 +2 5 5 5.0 100% — 🇵🇹 Portugal 2nd in Grp K 2nd K 🔒 +5 6 5 5.0 100% — 🇨🇦 Canada 2nd in Grp B 2nd B 🔒 +5 8 4 4.0 100% — 🇵🇾 Paraguay 3rd in Grp D 3rd D 🔒 -2 2 4 4.0 100% — 🇦🇺 Australia 2nd in Grp D 2nd D 🔒 0 2 4 4.0 100% — 🇪🇨 Ecuador 3rd in Grp E 3rd E 🔒 0 2 4 4.0 100% — 🇸🇪 Sweden 3rd in Grp F 3rd F 🔒 0 7 4 4.0 100% — 🇩🇿 Algeria 3rd in Grp J 3rd J 🔒 -2 5 4 4.0 100% — 🇦🇹 Austria 2nd in Grp J 2nd J 🔒 0 6 4 4.0 100% — 🇨🇩 Congo DR 3rd in Grp K 3rd K 🔒 +1 4 4 4.0 100% — 🇬🇭 Ghana 3rd in Grp L 3rd L 🔒 0 2 4 4.0 100% — 🇸🇳 Senegal 3rd in Grp I 3rd I 🔒 +2 8 3 3.0 100% — even odds to qualify (50%)
🏴 Scotland 3rd in Grp C 3rd C 🔒 -3 1 3 3.0 0% — 🇹🇷 Turkey 4th in Grp D 4th D 🔒 -2 3 3 3.0 0% — 🇮🇷 Iran 3rd in Grp G 3rd G 🔒 0 3 3 3.0 0% — 🇺🇾 Uruguay 3rd in Grp H 3rd H 🔒 -1 3 2 2.0 0% — 🇨🇿 Czechia 4th in Grp A 4th A 🔒 -4 2 1 1.0 0% — 🇶🇦 Qatar 4th in Grp B 4th B 🔒 -8 2 1 1.0 0% — 🇨🇼 Curaçao 4th in Grp E 4th E 🔒 -8 1 1 1.0 0% — 🇭🇹 Haiti 4th in Grp C 4th C 🔒 -6 2 0 0.0 0% — 🇹🇳 Tunisia 4th in Grp F 4th F 🔒 -10 2 0 0.0 0% — 🇮🇶 Iraq 4th in Grp I 4th I 🔒 -11 1 0 0.0 0% — 🇯🇴 Jordan 4th in Grp J 4th J 🔒 -5 3 0 0.0 0% — 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 4th in Grp K 4th K 🔒 -9 2 0 0.0 0% — 🇵🇦 Panama 4th in Grp L 4th L 🔒 -4 0 0 0.0 0% —
All 48 teams, ranked by their chance of reaching the knockouts by any route — clinched at the
top, eliminated at the bottom, the real race around the even-odds line in the middle.
Qualify = chance of qualifying; 🔒 = finishing
position mathematically settled (can no longer move).
How the line works
Each of the 12 groups sends its top two teams straight to the Round of 32.
That is 24 places. The last 8 go to the best third-placed teams,
ranked across all groups by points, then goal difference, goals scored,
fair play, and their FIFA World Ranking. Teams still inseparable after all
that would go to a drawing of lots — which we show as a
tie rather than guess.
The four third-placed teams who miss out are eliminated. With groups still
in play, the level of the line moves — so alongside the live table we
simulate every remaining fixture to show the chance it settles on
each points total.
How the projection is built →