World Cup 2026
The knockouts
The projected bracket: each group's most-likely finish, the eight thirds most likely to qualify, then advanced on the favourite — bookmakers' prices where a tie is on the market, the ratings model beyond. It's a projection — it shifts as results come in, and each slot locks (🔒) once that team's group position is mathematically settled. Once the knockouts begin, completed ties show the real result (✓) and the projection carries on from there.
= result in = locked (position settled); otherwise projected % = favourite's projected chance to win that tie
How it works: the bracket is seeded from each group's most-likely projected finish using the official FIFA bracket rules (including the third-placed-team allocation), then each tie advances the favourite — so it shows one path: the favourites going through. Round-of-32 chances reflect bookmakers' prices where a tie is on the market; deeper and unpriced ties use team Elo, with a home edge for a host (USA, Mexico or Canada) playing in its own country (the draw is set aside — ties are decided in extra time or on penalties). The % on each tie is the favourite's chance of winning that tie. Results only, never scorelines — and a projection that shifts as results come in. More on the methodology page.